How severe is Russia’s energy shortage because of Ukrainian strikes?

Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure are intensifying fuel shortages in Russia, triggering a rare admission from President Vladimir Putin of the gravity of the situation. In unusually candid public remarks to a meeting of senior officials on Sunday, Putin explicitly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes had led to fuel rationing. “You are well aware that problems for drivers and for businesses persist,” he said, according to Russian news agencies. “Unfortunately, there are still queues at petrol stations too.” He added that the situation required “systemic measures that match the scale of current challenges”.

Targets of Ukrainian strikes

Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian energy facilities in recent months, hitting crude oil and refined products sales. Norsi, Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery, suspended operations last week following a drone attack. Ukraine also struck the Orenburg gas processing plant, with a capacity of 45 billion cubic metres per year, and hit two oil facilities in Kerch, Crimea, and the port of Kavkaz used to supply the front lines. President Zelenskyy said the attacks mean “fewer resources serving Russia’s war machine”.

Economic impact

Indra Overland, head of the Center for Energy Research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), said the impact on Russia’s domestic economy has been “growing by the day”. Most regions have introduced limits on petrol and diesel sales, and some gas stations have shut down or have queues up to 12 hours. This disrupts transportation, agriculture, and the movement of people. The fuel shortages also threaten the July-August harvest season, as tractors and machinery require fuel. Panic buying and hoarding are exacerbating the situation and driving inflation.

However, the military sector remains a priority. Markku Kivinen at the University of Helsinki noted that Russia will bypass consumer needs to sustain the war effort, affecting government legitimacy but not immediately weakening the war.

Political implications

Margarita Zavadskaya, senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), said Putin admitted the shortages “because they had become too visible to deny”. She believes the impact is “attritional and politically corrosive” rather than destabilising. Repeated attacks undermine the public’s trust in the state’s ability to provide security and stability. Overland added that handling the crisis may become harder, noting that Ukraine might target pipelines later, which would have a greater impact come autumn heating season.