Farage likely to win Clacton byelection but credibility at risk

Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform Party, has found himself in a situation where his political career is on the line. Although he is likely to win the Clacton byelection he himself triggered, his credibility has been called into question.

It all began when The Guardian revealed that Farage had received an undeclared £5m gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. This revelation sparked a flurry of questions about his finances and lifestyle. In response, Farage announced his resignation as an MP to trigger a byelection he calls a "people versus establishment" fight.

However, other major parties – Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Restore Britain – have said they will not stand in the byelection, dismissing it as a stunt. This means Farage may face a parade of novelty candidates and could appear mainly foolish.

In his statement announcing his resignation, Farage listed a lengthy set of grievances: people were judging him for the "lottery win" of the gift, his safety was at risk, the media was persecuting him, and his daughter had been approached by broadcasters. Such self-pity could damage his image, which was built on the idea that he would be a fun person to share a pint with.

Since the news emerged, three things have happened that are deeply uncomfortable for Farage. First, persistent questions about his finances have made him something of a hermit. Second, media organisations have dug further into his often complex finances, including the number of homes he owns and his reliance on convicted criminal George Cottrell. Third, the parliamentary standards commissioner is investigating whether Farage should have declared the money from Harborne as well as the assistance from Cottrell.

There is a growing assumption in Westminster that the scale of the Harborne sum could lead to a Commons suspension long enough to trigger a recall petition. Farage likely hopes that a convincing win could push back against such a move. But he faces questions he is uncomfortable answering: why did Harborne give him so much money? What was it spent on? How many homes does he own?

Farage, who had hoped to again present himself as an outsider, now risks becoming a punchline. His gambit is to regain control of the political narrative, but with other main candidates removed, the spotlight is unflinching. He seems trapped in a charade of his own making.