Ukraine's Central Bank Estimates Billions in Losses From Halted Sea Exports

Ukraine's National Bank (NBU) has estimated in its latest inflation report that direct losses in export revenue caused by the suspension of maritime exports will exceed $2 billion in the second half of 2026.

Movement of vessels into Ukraine's Black Sea ports was halted on 23 July due to the threat of Russian attacks, following weeks of aerial strikes on port infrastructure.

Alternative Routes Fall Short

According to the NBU, Ukraine typically exported 4-4.5 million tonnes of agricultural produce per month by sea. Cargo is now being redirected to rail, road transport and Danube river ports, but these combined routes can handle only about 2.5 million tonnes per month.

The shortfall is expected to persist from August through October, worsened by drought conditions that have lowered water levels on the Danube and reduced its throughput capacity. The NBU expects export volumes to begin recovering from November.

Higher Costs but a More Manageable Situation

Redirecting logistics is raising storage and transport costs for the agricultural sector, contributing to the projected losses. However, the NBU expects the volumes that could not be shipped this year to be exported during the first half of 2027, partially offsetting the negative impact.

The bank noted that, thanks to well-developed alternative routes and farmers' accumulated experience, the current situation remains more manageable than during the blockade of 2022.

Some Ukrainian traders have already begun redirecting wheat and other cargo toward the Danube, though most exporters are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than absorbing the extra costs of fully replacing sea transport.