What xG really tells us about the Premier League's early season
A statistical breakdown shows that expected goals (xG) figures give a more accurate read on Premier League teams' true form than the five-game-old league table, revealing some sides overperforming and others flattered by results. Arsenal lead the underlying numbers despite a heavy defeat, while Newcastle's strong position masks a shakier performance.
Five games into the Premier League season, the table remains an unreliable guide — last season at this stage Liverpool led with five wins from five, yet finished fifth. Expected goals (xG), which measures how much a team has dominated matches based on shot quantity and quality, offers a clearer picture of underlying form before finishing and luck are factored in.
By xG difference, champions Arsenal have been the best-performing side overall despite a heavy defeat away to Brighton last weekend. Leaders Manchester City are close behind, while unbeaten Brentford's start looks genuinely deserved rather than fortunate. Manchester United, despite an unconvincing run of results, rank highly on xG difference, with only three teams ahead of them.
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have also performed better than their table positions suggest. At the other end, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have been the weakest overall performers, with Newcastle's case particularly notable given their position in the top half. Meanwhile, promoted sides Hull and Ipswich have made solid starts to the campaign.
Attack and defence
Brighton have generated the most attacking output so far, followed by Manchester City, Brentford and Manchester United. Brighton have also converted well, scoring 15 non-penalty goals from an xG of 10.7. Newcastle have been even more clinical, scoring twice their xG total — 9 goals from just 4.5 xG.
By contrast, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have all underperformed their chances by three goals. Defensively, Arsenal remain the league's best, while Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have been the most exposed at the back. Everton and Leeds have conceded fewer goals than their opponents' chances would suggest.
