Analyst: Nuclear weapons are Russia's last resort to pressure Europe
Estonian security analyst Peeter Kaldre warns that Russia is increasingly threatening nuclear weapons because its conventional forces cannot defeat even Ukraine. He argues Moscow's goal is to intimidate Europe into reducing or ending support for Ukraine.
Estonian security analyst Peeter Kaldre argues that Russia is increasingly relying on nuclear threats as leverage against Europe, since its conventional military cannot achieve a decisive victory even over Ukraine.
US scales back European presence
The article recalls NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's remark that 500 million Europeans should not have to ask 300 million Americans for protection from 140 million Russians. US administrations, including Donald Trump's, have long signaled intent to cut military contributions to NATO and shift more responsibility to Europe — and the first reductions are already underway. Writing in Foreign Affairs, three security experts (Franklin Miller, Eric Edelman and Walter Slocombe) warned that this shift, based on a new US security strategy prioritizing Asia and the Middle East, actually threatens America itself by weakening deterrence against rivals.
Europe's response
Since Europe is not yet able to fully replace the US presence, so-called "coalitions of the willing" are emerging, such as the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), which includes Baltic and Nordic states. Unlike NATO's Article 5 mechanism, JEF forces can act immediately — 900 British troops are currently stationed in Estonia, with 300 more arriving next year. A notable step was Finland's decision to allow nuclear weapons to be deployed or transited through its territory in case of threat, while Sweden has said it would strike deep into Russian territory if attacked.
Nuclear rhetoric
Vladimir Putin recently warned at the Valdai forum that any action against Kaliningrad could prompt Russia to use nuclear weapons. References have resurfaced to the so-called "dead hand" system, reportedly based in the Urals, said to be capable of launching nuclear weapons even if the country's political leadership were destroyed — though the truth of such claims is questionable.
Kaldre concludes that nuclear weapons are Russia's last resort, since it cannot defeat even Ukraine with conventional arms. Before that, so-called hybrid measures are expected — sabotage, assassination attempts, election interference, and strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. The author warns of a dangerous period ahead of next month's US midterm elections, which could shift Washington's current stance toward Russia.
