Could China copy Iran's blockade tactics against Taiwan?
An Al Jazeera program examines whether the wars in Iran and Ukraine suggest China might pursue a naval blockade of Taiwan rather than a direct invasion. Taiwan has long prepared for a military invasion, but recent conflicts point to other potential threats.
The latest edition of Al Jazeera's "101 East" program explores whether recent warfare in Iran and Ukraine should change assumptions about how China might act against Taiwan.
Taiwanese authorities have for years focused their defense preparations on the scenario of a direct Chinese military invasion. However, the program notes that recent conflicts around the world — including the wars in Iran and Ukraine — have revealed other forms of pressure that could threaten a state without a conventional invasion.
A broader view of potential threats
The central question raised is whether China might consider a strategy resembling Iran's attempts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz — using a naval blockade as a means of pressuring Taiwan instead of launching a full-scale armed invasion. Such an approach could theoretically avoid large-scale combat while still exerting significant economic and military pressure on the island.
The question of a possible blockade carries weight given Taiwan's geographic and economic reliance on maritime trade routes. The program suggests that new patterns seen in recent conflicts are prompting Taiwanese and international security analysts to broaden their thinking about potential threats beyond the traditional invasion scenario.
The source material does not include specific statements from Chinese or Taiwanese officials, but instead highlights a wider discussion about how regional security risks may be evolving in light of developments in other global conflict zones.
