Middle East oil exports hit war-time high as some LNG traffic returns through Hormuz

Middle East crude oil exports climbed to around 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the highest monthly level since the Iran war began seven months ago, according to preliminary data from Kpler. The figure remains roughly 3.2 million barrels a day below the 19.5 million recorded in February, before the conflict disrupted regional trade.

Saudi Arabia drove most of the increase, more than doubling its exports from 2.45 million barrels a day in August to about 5.4 million in September. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz were projected to reach roughly 9.7 million barrels a day, as Saudi Arabia routed additional crude through its Gulf terminals after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.

Partial return for LNG shipments

Several Qatar-linked LNG tankers also crossed Hormuz in September, after no visible crossings were recorded in August. Still, normal export volumes have not resumed. QatarEnergy has extended delivery suspensions for a number of customers in Europe and Asia. Italy's Edison said it had received a new force majeure notice extending suspensions until early December, meaning six more cargoes due at the Adriatic LNG terminal will not arrive — bringing the total number of missed cargoes since April to 35. Edison has replaced 23 of them, mostly with gas from the United States. Customers in Pakistan and Bangladesh have also been told suspensions will continue through November.

The disruption traces back to joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, which opened the ongoing war and sharply curtailed shipping through Hormuz. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal, relayed through Qatari mediators, to reopen the strait and halt the fighting within seven days.

Strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility damaged two LNG production units, cutting the country's output capacity by about 17%. Qatar's energy minister said repairing those units would take roughly three years, but the remaining 12 undamaged units could resume normal operations within weeks once ships can transit Hormuz safely and regularly.