Poland's foreign minister: Russia is preparing 'something big' this year

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York alongside Romanian counterpart Oana Țoiu, said Russia is preparing something big this year. He declined to specify his sources but said there were many, according to news agency PAP.

Possible false-flag scenario

Sikorski suggested that President Vladimir Putin might need a pretext for further mobilization, raising the possibility that Moscow could stage a false-flag operation to convince the Russian public that the country is under attack.

He noted that Belarusians are highly concerned about being drawn into the war. Sikorski also pointed to Russia's possible interest in establishing a land corridor to Kaliningrad through Lithuania, as well as the large Russian-speaking communities in border regions of Estonia and Latvia.

Full-scale invasion seen as unlikely

Sikorski described a full-scale military invasion as a reckless move for Russia, predicting instead a less clearly defined escalation that would also complicate the application of NATO's Article 5. He stated that Poland would defend itself if necessary, as it has done before, and linked recent Russian strikes near the Ukraine-Poland border crossings to a broader strategy of cutting off Western supplies to Ukraine.

War could drag on for another year or two

Sikorski estimated that Moscow, despite economic difficulties, could sustain the war for another one to two years unless Kyiv manages to destroy more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity. Russia still has options such as mobilization, harsh winter conditions, and further strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, though Kyiv also has its own advantages to play.

On a potential permanent US military base in Poland, Sikorski said a brigade could eventually be stationed there in addition to the roughly 7,000 US troops currently deployed on a rotational basis. He said around 10,000 American troops would be enough to give Poland a sense of security without threatening Russia, and expressed hope that US President Donald Trump would honor commitments on the matter.