Researchers Model Climate Change Impact on Latvia's Groundwater
University of Latvia researchers project that groundwater levels across the Baltic states may actually rise long-term, though shorter-term dips could hit shallow well owners and farmers first.
Researchers from the University of Latvia, working with international colleagues, have modeled how climate change could affect groundwater reserves in the Baltic states through the end of this century. The study drew on 13 regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX dataset and three separate climate change scenarios.
Long-term outlook not alarming
According to the modeling results, most of the studied locations are projected to see an overall increase in groundwater levels over the long term compared to recent climate norms. However, the researchers caution that a temporary decline in groundwater levels is possible in the nearer future.
Shallow groundwater most sensitive
Shallow groundwater layers are particularly vulnerable to these shifts, since their levels respond much faster to a lack of precipitation than deeper water horizons do. As a result, during prolonged hot and dry summers, the first to feel the effects are likely to be owners of shallow private wells and farmers.
Climate also affects water quality
A 2025 report on key water management issues in Latvia, published by the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, notes that rising air and water temperatures, milder and shorter winters, and more frequent extreme weather events — such as droughts followed by heavy rainfall — are altering both the quantity and quality of water, including groundwater. Longer frost-free periods and earlier spring flood phases are also changing river flow patterns and affecting biological processes, including fish spawning rhythms and migration. These shifts could disrupt the natural balance of ecosystems and reduce biodiversity.
