Tory conference in upbeat mood, but poll numbers tell a different story

The UK Conservative Party's conference in Birmingham, opening Sunday, is expected to feel far more unified and upbeat than last year's gathering, according to party figures. There is also broad agreement that leader Kemi Badenoch has been performing well. Yet the underlying numbers tell a less encouraging story.

One Conservative MP acknowledged that while the mood has improved, the party is still running a distant third in the polls and would lose badly if an election were held tomorrow. Nearly two years after Badenoch became leader, the party's polling remains below where it stood in 2024, when it suffered a disastrous election result.

Pressure from Reform UK

Part of the patience shown by MPs stems from a fractured political landscape and the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK on the right. While Badenoch's position is secure for now, some Conservatives worry that her focus on winning back Reform voters, with little offered to centrists, carries political and reputational risks. A shadow minister said the party needs to attract voters lost to both the Liberal Democrats and Reform, warning that the current approach risks reviving the party's old "nasty party" image.

In recent weeks, the party has pledged to bar non-Britons from social housing, strip citizenship from dual nationals convicted of serious crimes, and cut some benefits to subsistence levels with restrictions on buying alcohol or tobacco. Its main pre-conference pledge was to cut overseas aid to fund 50,000 new prison places.

Divided views within the party

Many MPs see no problem with this direction, saying constituents are far more worried about welfare costs than party image. Meanwhile, centrist Conservatives such as former West Midlands mayor Andy Street and former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson have formed a group called Prosper UK, arguing the party must do more to win back moderate voters who switched to the Liberal Democrats in 2024.

Badenoch's personal approval ratings have improved but remain in negative territory. Analysts say the party's strategy appears to be containing Reform UK while hoping it eventually implodes, though it remains unclear where additional votes would come from given the party's support has declined since 2024.