Latvia's energy ministry: heating costs to rise moderately this winter, but sharp spikes possible in some cases
Latvia's Climate and Energy Ministry expects moderate average heating cost increases this season, though households using pellets or exchange-linked gas contracts could face significantly steeper rises.
Baiba Jākobsone, a representative of Latvia's Climate and Energy Ministry (KEM), told news agency LETA that the upcoming heating season should bring a moderate average rise in heating costs nationwide, though some households may see substantially sharper increases. The ministry says the highest price extremes are not driven by an overall shortage of energy resources, but by specific heating methods and local circumstances.
The fuel market has been tense since early summer, and frost earlier this year renewed questions about readiness for the coming season. Since summer, KEM has been working on fuel stock adequacy, the preparedness of municipalities and heating companies, and support tools for households facing price increases.
Who faces higher risk
In district heating, the gap between national averages and individual price spikes is expected to be more pronounced this season. Small, fragmented heating systems that cannot diversify fuel sources and that purchased fuel under unfavorable terms face the biggest potential tariff jumps. Pellet-heated households that bought pellets during price peaks, along with large, poorly insulated homes with high pellet consumption, also carry elevated risk. Households with natural gas heating tied to exchange-based contracts will feel wholesale gas price swings more directly.
National averages
KEM estimates that a 35-square-metre apartment could see heating costs rise by roughly 2 to 10 euros per month, while a 100-square-metre house could face an increase of about 20 to 40 euros per month, depending on the heating type used. Overall fuel availability in the country is assessed as sufficient, and the average district heating tariff increase in September did not exceed 5%.
Expanded housing benefit support
Because of localized price jumps, KEM proposed raising the coefficients used to calculate the housing benefit for the heating season. On September 24, parliament passed amendments in final reading that will raise these coefficients from November 1 through April 30, 2027, for various groups, including pensioners and families with children. The number of benefit recipients is projected to grow by 2,232 people to 37,610, while the average monthly benefit per person is expected to rise from €149.19 to €174.11.
