Hot, dry weather becomes an unexpected Russian ally amid Ukraine's grain export impasse
Europe's heat and drought are disrupting Ukraine's grain exports, and Russia is seeking to exploit the situation, according to Lrytas, citing Newsweek.
Russia has gained an unexpected ally in its war against Ukraine: the hot and dry weather in Europe, according to Lrytas, citing Newsweek. Vladimir Putin does not control this factor, but Moscow can exploit the problems it creates for Ukraine.
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the Danube River has become one of the key alternative routes for Ukrainian grain exports, as navigation in the Black Sea grew dangerous. This summer, however, things have changed. In Romania, lower water levels have caused serious disruptions to shipping and electricity generation.
At the same time, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian ports near Odesa. In July alone, there were 35 attacks on ships in ports, 22 attacks on ships at sea, and 67 strikes on port infrastructure. On 9 August, Russian forces also attacked a bridge near Mayaky that connects Odesa region with Moldova and Romania. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested the target may have been to complicate the use of a land route employed to address problems linked to sea exports.
Ukraine has repeatedly created backup export routes after Black Sea ports were hampered. Grain has been moved by rail, trucks and barges, as well as through the Danube ports of Izmail and Reni. Yet the current situation exposes the weaknesses of this system. Alternative routes depend on weather and can also become targets for Russian attacks.
Russia itself practically acknowledges the problem. On 10 August, Anatoly Tikhonov, head of the International Agricultural Business and Food Security Center at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, published an article on state news agency TASS. He predicted that demand for Ukrainian grain in Europe would grow, while Ukraine's export capabilities would decline. According to Newsweek, Russia is trying to use the food supply shortage in its own interests. Tikhonov believes Russia should 'use this moment'.
