Fact Check: Western Sanctions on Russia Are Working, but No Rapid Collapse Expected
Despite Kremlin claims that sanctions are ineffective, data show EU trade with Russia has dropped by 90%, inflation is at 10%, and labor shortages are acute. However, experts predict stagnation rather than a sudden economic collapse.
For 13 years, the Kremlin has argued that Western sanctions do not work, but a fact-check by the project “Faktomāts” reveals that the numbers tell a different story. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the EU, US, Canada, and the UK have imposed 20 sanction packages. As a result, EU exports to Russia have fallen from over 7 billion euros per month to 2.4 billion, while imports from Russia dropped from over 20 billion to about 2 billion euros per month—a decline of roughly 90%.
However, Russia has partially offset these losses by redirecting trade to China and India. By the end of 2024, Chinese exports to Russia exceeded $11 billion, mainly vehicles, machinery, and electronics. Russia, in turn, increased energy supplies to China, albeit at lower prices than in Europe. Central Asian countries have also become transit hubs for sanctioned goods.
Economist Matīss Mirošņikovs from the Bank of Latvia emphasizes that sanctions are effective, but their impact is gradual. Official Russian data shows economic growth since 2022, but inflation has reached about 10%, and unemployment has fallen to a record low of 2.5%, indicating severe labor shortages. “Behind the beautiful economic growth figures lie labor shortages and high inflation – this is a war economy,” Mirošņikovs notes.
Dmitri Nekrasov, director of the think tank CASE, predicts stagnation or a slight decline for the Russian economy by the end of 2026, rather than a catastrophic collapse. To strengthen sanctions pressure, experts recommend further reducing dependence on Russian energy, tightening control over circumvention, and expanding product restrictions.
Conclusion: Sanctions are working, gradually weakening Russia’s economy, but a rapid collapse should not be expected in the near future.
