Expert: Ukraine's Lyman success marks an operational-level breakthrough
Estonian military expert Neeme Väli says Ukraine's Third Army Corps achieved more than a tactical win near Lyman, calling it an operational breakthrough that could be replicated elsewhere on the front.
Ukraine's offensive near Lyman has achieved a breakthrough that goes beyond local tactical significance and represents a substantial operational-level gain, retired Maj. Gen. Neeme Väli of Estonia told ERR's "Ukraina stuudio." He said the operation, carried out by Ukraine's Third Army Corps, was the culmination of preparations that took several months.
According to Väli, Ukrainian forces made extensive use of unmanned systems both in the air and on the ground, succeeding in blinding Russia's command systems. Ukraine proved so effective at countering drones that Russia was forced to withdraw its Rubikon units — among its best-equipped, best-trained and most experienced drone units — from the battle area. This left Russian forces without their command capabilities, effectively losing their "eyes and ears," allowing Ukraine to reclaim a significant stretch of occupied territory.
Scale of recaptured territory
Estimates of the recaptured area vary between sources, ranging from roughly 125 to 250 square kilometers. Based on the Institute for the Study of War's mapping, the reclaimed zone is about 25 kilometers wide and roughly 30 kilometers deep, which eased pressure on the northern flank of Russia's fortified defensive line. Väli said he could not confirm whether Ukrainian forces reached the river along its entire length, though they did so in some sections.
A pattern that could spread
Väli described the operation's sequence: Ukrainian forces first struck deep behind the front line, cutting off Russian logistics and supply routes, then moved closer to the front to blind command systems and hamper Russian air operations. Only after that were infantry units sent in to clear remaining Russian strongpoints. A notable innovation, he said, was the use of larger drones to transport smaller ground drones close to Russian positions, which then carried out attacks.
Väli said he would not rule out Russia adapting to counter this approach, noting that throughout the war each side has repeatedly copied the other's innovations after a temporary advantage emerges. He pointed to Russia's jet-powered Geran drones, similar to Shahed drones, which initially outpaced Ukraine's slower interceptor drones. Ukraine has since developed countermeasures and battlefield data now shows it can intercept these jet-powered drones as well.
