Drone alert forces shelter in Vilnius as new reality hits NATO's eastern flank
On May 20, a drone warning in Vilnius sent residents scrambling for shelter, highlighting the spillover of the Ukraine war into NATO territory. The incident, likely a Ukrainian drone diverted by Russian electronic warfare, underscores rising threats and the need for strengthened defense.
A couple of weeks ago, a drone alert blasted on phones in Vilnius, Lithuania, sending a clear message: seek shelter. The first warning warned of a possible drone threat, followed by a sharper 'air danger' alert. People moved to basements and cellars, including a group of Austrian business and academic leaders who had arrived for a geopolitics lecture. The meeting was relocated to a library basement, where the speaker, Linas Kojala, CEO of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, began his talk underground.
The working assumption is that a Ukrainian drone, aimed at Russian military or energy infrastructure, was diverted by Russian electronic warfare and crossed into Lithuanian airspace. It did not hit anything and has not been found, but the ambiguity is problematic. Similar incidents have occurred in Latvia, Estonia, and Romania, where a Russian-made Geran-2 drone hit an apartment block, injuring two civilians.
Russia is increasing pressure as it faces worries: Ukraine's long-range drone campaign is becoming more effective, and Western estimates suggest Russia loses about 30,000 killed and wounded per month, with nearly half a million soldiers killed since the war started. GCHQ's director recently highlighted these figures.
In response, Lithuania is spending 5.38% of its GDP on defense – the highest in NATO. Citizens are joining the Lithuanian Riflemen's Union, a voluntary civic defense organization, with membership growing by about a third since 2024. The economy grew by 2.7% in 2025, nearly twice the EU average.
Kojala argues that at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, allies should transform Baltic air policing into a genuine air defense mission capable of detecting, tracking, and neutralizing threats. Any hesitation will be read as weakness by Russia.
During the basement lecture, the Austrian guests listened more intently than usual, perhaps because Austria, though an EU member, remains non-aligned on defense and traditionally sees Russia as a partner. This experience, Kojala says, should be a lesson in the West's own self-interest.
