Brazil presidential polls: race between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tightens ahead of first round

How the states are split

According to polling firm Quaest, as published by G1, the contest for Brazil's presidency in the 2026 election is becoming increasingly tight. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, PT) leads in nine states — Alagoas, Amapá, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, leads in eight states — Acre, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rondônia, Roraima and Santa Catarina. In another eight regions, including the Federal District, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo state and Tocantins, the two candidates are in a technical tie. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, except in São Paulo, where it is 2 points. A survey for Pará state was released on Saturday, September 26, while no Quaest poll was conducted in Piauí.

São Paulo: Flávio ahead in both scenarios

A separate poll released Friday evening, September 25, by institute Datafolha shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading specifically in São Paulo state. In a first-round scenario he polls at 38%, against 33% for Lula. In third place with 7% is writer Augusto Cury (Avante), followed by former governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 5% and Renan Santos (Missão) with 4%. In a simulated runoff between just the two frontrunners, Flávio would get 49% of the vote versus Lula's 41%, with only 1% undecided. Datafolha interviewed 1,610 voters between September 22 and 23; the margin of error is 2 percentage points with a 95% confidence interval. The poll was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo and is registered with Brazil's top electoral court (TSE) under protocol BR-09355/2026.

Lula's campaign to push "useful vote" message

According to Folha de S.Paulo, Lula's re-election campaign plans to intensify its "useful vote" messaging in the final week before the first round — urging voters to compare the president against his rivals, especially Flávio Bolsonaro, rather than judge his administration in absolute terms. Speaking Friday at a meeting with business leaders in São Paulo, Lula said he would understand voters' doubts if his opponent were a "genius," but argued that is not the case against Flávio Bolsonaro. Businessman Joesley Batista, head of the J&F conglomerate and currently close to Lula, agreed with the assessment and added that he expects a tight race that increasingly looks like a straightforward left-versus-right confrontation.