Ex-intelligence chief Kondratiuk: Ukraine-Russia talks run through covert intelligence channels
Former head of Ukraine's foreign intelligence and military intelligence agency, Valerii Kondratiuk, explains in an interview how secret diplomacy between Ukraine, the US and Russia is unfolding and what leverage Trump may hold over Putin.
Valerii Kondratiuk, former head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service and the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), shared his assessment of the ongoing negotiation process between Ukraine, the United States and Russia in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.
He said talks should not be expected to end the war after a single meeting, but rather serve as a gradual process that shifts each side's position. Kondratiuk noted that the US president's approval rating has fallen to 33%, suggesting that current moves, including pressure on Russia, are partly aimed at improving those numbers. He argued that upcoming US midterm elections will effectively serve as a vote of confidence in the current administration and will shape the future course of negotiations.
Asked about leverage Washington could use against Moscow, Kondratiuk pointed to potential restrictions on Russia's shadow tanker fleet, stricter sanctions enforcement, and the transfer of technology to Ukraine — particularly missile guidance systems for ballistic weapons — which he said could significantly change the course of the war.
Covert diplomacy
According to Kondratiuk, actual negotiations rarely happen directly but instead proceed through intelligence channels, where possible concessions and reactions are tested. He stressed that there is currently no trust between Ukraine and Russia, making it essential to build a verification mechanism for any agreement — for example, automatically deducting funds from frozen Russian assets for every violation.
He also referenced a visit by CIA Director Ratcliffe to Russia, during which Russian intelligence chiefs were reportedly presented with stark wartime figures, including the short average survival time of Russian soldiers on the battlefield and the minimal territorial gains after years of fighting. Kondratiuk suggested that Russia's own intelligence services, aware of the country's real economic situation, could become the force capable of shifting the Kremlin's course.
Russian elections
Commenting on Russia's recent parliamentary elections, in which United Russia secured 58%, Kondratiuk said falling public support forced authorities to adjust the planned result to avoid an implausible-looking landslide. He noted that no genuine opposition exists in Russia today, so the outcome came as no surprise.
