US Midterms: Democrats Poised to Win Congress, With Consequences for Ukraine Support
US midterm elections on 3 November will renew the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. Forecasts say Democrats will almost certainly take the House and may contest the Senate, which would limit President Donald Trump's freedom of action, including on Ukraine.
American voters will go to the polls on 3 November, in three weeks, in the midterm elections for Congress, held midway through President Donald Trump's second term. The outcome will determine how constrained Trump will be, including regarding Russia's war in Ukraine. Congress is the US legislature, made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Trump's approval falls
At the end of September, Trump's approval rating dropped to 32%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. It is the lowest figure of his political career. The president is criticised mainly for rising fuel prices and the higher cost of living, which the source links to the war on Iran he launched. Only 17% of Americans view the administration's efforts to reduce living costs positively.
House and Senate
All 435 House seats and a third of the Senate are up for election. According to the latest forecasts, the House majority will almost certainly pass to the Democrats. Republicans currently hold a slim 218–214 edge. Democrats need to win just five additional seats for a majority.
In the 100-seat Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats and allied independents hold 47. This year 35 seats are contested, and only seven are considered toss-ups. The most closely watched race is in Texas, where Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, faces Democrat James Talarico. Talarico has raised $72 million in donations against $16.8 million for his rival. Republican national committees, however, hold nearly twice as much money: $233.4 million.
What it means for Ukraine
Ahead of the vote, Trump struck a diesel deal with Vladimir Putin, which has angered Europe's allies. On 13 October a bipartisan group of senators demanded that the deal be cancelled and pressure on Russia continued. Republican Brian Fitzpatrick has introduced a bill that would bar Trump from unilaterally lifting sanctions on Russian oil.
Democrats promise to speed up military aid to Ukraine. Congressman Jim Himes argues that Democratic success in both chambers would force Trump into compromises, since Congress controls the budget.
