US solar growth is slowing, but renewables still keep pace with rising demand
New US grid data show solar generation growth has slowed noticeably in 2026, though combined with wind it still matched the entire increase in electricity demand. Federal policy shifts away from renewable incentives coincide with coal's continued decline.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration covering the first seven months of 2026 show electricity demand rising by 2 percent year over year, a slower pace than the 3 percent recorded over the same period the previous year. Data center expansion is contributing to the growth, but so is broader electrification, including electric vehicles and heat pumps. Some of the slowdown may reflect efficiency gains, while some demand growth is likely masked by data centers that generate their own power rather than drawing from the grid.
Solar cools off
After years of solar generation increasing by more than 30 percent year over year in many quarters, growth has moderated. Solar output rose by 39 terawatt-hours over the first seven months of 2026, compared with a 48-terawatt-hour increase over the same period the year before. That still represents 22 percent growth, but the slowdown comes at a time when demand is rising and solar remains the cheapest option for meeting it. The federal government has removed several incentives for renewables, which may be contributing to the deceleration. Small-scale solar, such as rooftop systems, grew more slowly than utility-scale solar but still increased by over 12 percent.
Coal declines, wind and nuclear hold steady
Coal generation fell by more than 10 percent, and solar—combining utility and small-scale output—now produces 72 percent as much electricity as coal. Hydro rose 9 percent, wind 6 percent, while nuclear and natural gas each grew less than 2 percent. Wind and solar together now supply 21 percent of US electricity demand, and their combined growth of 55 terawatt-hours exceeded the 51-terawatt-hour rise in overall grid demand. Including hydro, renewables cover 27 percent of demand, and adding nuclear brings non-carbon-emitting sources to 45 percent of US electricity use. By comparison, the EU generates about 30 percent of its electricity from wind and solar, with 65 percent coming from emissions-free sources overall.
Looking ahead, two large offshore wind projects are set to come online on the East Coast, including a 2.6-gigawatt facility off Virginia—likely the last such projects until the 2030s, as federal policy has discouraged further offshore wind development. Onshore wind and solar construction continues in the Midwest, Plains, and South, while battery storage installations are spreading beyond California and Texas to states including Arizona, Colorado, and Georgia. No new coal or nuclear plants are currently under development.
