Polls show Democrats widening lead over Republicans ahead of midterm elections
New polling data shows American sympathies increasingly shifting toward Democrats, while President Donald Trump's approval rating has hit the lowest point of his political career. The trend is troubling for Republicans, who must defend their majority in both chambers of Congress this November.
Ahead of the US congressional midterm elections expected in November, polling data points to a growing advantage for Democrats. According to Gallup figures for the first quarter of 2026, 49% of Americans identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, compared with 39% on the Republican side - a ten-point gap not seen since 2015.
A shift over the past year
As recently as the first quarter of 2025, the two parties were essentially tied, each backed by 45% of Americans when leaning independents were included. Since then, Democratic support has gradually grown while Republican support has declined. Gallup notes that independent voters' sentiment tends to shift depending on how the public views the performance of the party in power, and this change has coincided with Trump's time in the White House.
Low personal approval
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll also points to difficulties for the president, with only 33% of Americans rating his performance positively - the lowest of his political career and the third consecutive poll showing similarly weak support. Dissatisfaction is particularly pronounced on economic issues: 71% of respondents, including roughly four in ten Republicans, expressed dissatisfaction with how Trump is handling the cost of living. For weeks running, voters have also been more likely to say Democrats have better ideas on the economy.
Divergent voter enthusiasm
The poll also reveals a gap in voter enthusiasm - 46% of Democrats said they are very interested in voting, compared with 31% of Republicans. If congressional elections were held today, 36% of independents said they would back a Democratic candidate, versus 22% for a Republican.
Analysts caution that current sentiment does not guarantee a Democratic win in November, since the outcome will also depend on individual candidates, voter turnout and races in specific districts. Still, the overall picture gives Republicans, who must defend their majority in both chambers of Congress, real reason for concern.
