UN warns El Niño is becoming 'supersized' and could break historic records
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that El Niño will become "very strong" in the coming months, with impacts felt worldwide at least until February 2027, while a new study suggests it may be the most intense such event in at least 1,000 years.
UN warning
On September 3, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that El Niño will strengthen to "very strong" intensity in the coming months and will almost certainly persist at least until February 2027. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes" and that the planet is "in the danger zone of extreme weather." WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned of a possible "devastating blow" to communities and economies; according to RFI, she added that this event could be the strongest since monitoring began four decades ago.
Conflicting figures
Sources differ slightly on temperature data. RFI and DW report that weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific ranged 2.2–2.6°C above average in late July to mid-August. BBC, however, reports forecasts suggesting monthly anomalies could approach nearly 4°C above average, which would make this the strongest El Niño since 1950. All sources agree that subsurface ocean heat is even more extreme, exceeding 8°C above average in some areas.
Strongest in 1,000 years?
A study published in Science, covered by Ars Technica, used fossilized Galápagos coral records reconstructing ocean temperatures back to roughly 1100 CE. It found that El Niño variability since 1984 has been 36.5% higher than in the pre-industrial era and 16.2% higher than during 1851–1982. Lead researcher Julie Cole (University of Michigan) said climate models excluding human influence fail to reproduce such an increase, pointing to a human-caused fingerprint behind the intensification.
Global impacts
Panama Canal traffic has been cut by more than 10%; Panama and El Salvador have declared states of emergency, and Ecuador a red alert. In Indonesia, more than 107,000 hectares have burned this dry season. China expects seven typhoons to make landfall this year — three in July killed dozens, and Typhoon Dolphin forced more than a million evacuations in August. In Australia, southern coastal areas face the worst marine heatwaves, while the Great Barrier Reef may be spared this year. Central America is suffering drought that has damaged maize crops, and India's monsoon rainfall was below normal in August, a trend expected to continue into September. As reported by Scientific American, a recent landslide-triggered avalanche and floods in Nepal and Tibet killed more than 1,000 people, though scientists say there is not yet clear evidence directly linking the disaster to El Niño. DW notes that crop losses could push up global food prices, compounded by fallout from the Iran-US conflict. The WMO is urging governments and climate-sensitive sectors to prepare immediately.
