Analysis: why Europe must rethink its security in an age of weakening major powers

The joint decision by the United States and Israel to begin military action against Iran is being described as an event with implications far beyond a regional escalation. Analysts argue the move marks a significant turning point in the global balance of power — a shift that is weakening both of the world's leading powers, the United States and China.

Why this matters for Europe

While a weakening of the major powers might seem to open opportunities for other international actors, including Europe, analysts caution against welcoming this development. The reasoning is straightforward: a world in which traditional major powers lose influence and stability does not become safer — it becomes more dangerous. Weak or unpredictable great powers mean a less predictable international order, one in which previous security guarantees and balancing mechanisms can no longer be relied upon.

Europe's outdated model

The central warning concerns the European Union and its member states' current approach to security. According to analysts, the model Europe has relied on for its defence and foreign policy is not suited to the new conditions — a world dominated not by strong, stable states but by weak ones. This situation demands that Europe adopt a new approach to safeguarding itself, since previous assumptions about the global order and the role of major powers can no longer be taken for granted.

The events surrounding Iran are thus seen as a signal that the international system is undergoing deeper transformation, and that Europe must adapt its strategy to this new, less stable reality.