Zelensky and Generals: Secret Talks on Elections and Power Configuration
In June, a secret high-level meeting took place near Kyiv where Volodymyr Zelensky, Kyrylo Budanov, and others discussed the possibility of holding presidential elections in autumn. The talks focused on the political future of Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Budanov.
In mid-June, an unexpectedly crowded meeting took place at a state residence near Kyiv. Since the start of the full-scale war, such facilities are rarely used due to security restrictions. However, this time it gathered President Volodymyr Zelensky, Head of the Office Kyrylo Budanov with his deputy Oleh Tatarov, parliamentary majority leader David Arakhamia, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, and National Security Council Secretary Rustem Umerov. The meeting, originally intended as a strategic session, turned into a four-hour conversation, with the final 30 minutes dedicated to elections and realpolitik.
The discussion revolved around three key questions: whether to hold elections, if so when, and who the potential candidates would be. The basis was fresh closed sociological surveys that were unexpectedly optimistic for Zelensky. After months of decline, his rating showed a slight but steady increase. According to the polls, in the first round, 33% of decided voters would support Zelensky, 22% would back Zaluzhnyi, and nearly 14% would vote for Budanov.
However, second-round simulations were less favorable. Zelensky would lose to Zaluzhnyi (32% vs 37%) and only beat Budanov within the margin of error (34% vs 32%). This means no guaranteed victory for the president. Therefore, the meeting aimed to determine whether either general could be persuaded to skip the race.
One task was to convince Budanov not to run. Part of the team, led by Arakhamia, sees an optimal scenario where Zelensky is re-elected and Budanov becomes speaker of parliament. However, Budanov avoided a direct answer, leaving his options open.
Subsequently, Zelensky met with Zaluzhnyi, who was called from London ostensibly to discuss the UK situation. Zelensky directly asked if he would run, and Zaluzhnyi replied "Yes." The president did not offer any position, as it would be pointless. Later, Umerov and Arakhamia tried to persuade Zaluzhnyi, but his answer remained the same.
As a result, the Bankova plan for a quick autumn election hit a serious obstacle. Zelensky sees a window of opportunity due to rising ratings and military successes, but he has no guaranteed win. Zaluzhnyi's rating remains high but stagnant, while Budanov's popularity is gradually growing. If both generals run, they may weaken each other, potentially opening the door for a third candidate like Oleksandr Usyk.
