Wind power helped limit electricity price rise in the Baltics in October
Strong wind and hydropower output in October held back electricity price growth in Latvia despite sharply higher natural gas prices. The average price reached 11.3 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to Enefit data.
The average electricity price in Latvia reached 11.3 cents per kilowatt-hour in October, up 4% from September and 7% from October last year. The increase was relatively small because strong wind generation across the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) offset sharply higher natural gas prices and low water levels in Nordic hydropower reservoirs. The figures were compiled by the energy company Enefit.
The role of wind and solar
Wind farms in the Baltics produced about 724 GWh, roughly 11% more than in September and 50% more than a year earlier. New capacity contributed: the 87 MW Enefit Kelmė II wind farm in Lithuania and the 108 MW Latvenergo Laflora wind farm in Latvia. Solar plants generated about 244 GWh, 50% more than last year but 44% less than in September.
Wind and solar together covered 40% of Baltic electricity consumption, compared with 28% a year earlier, while fossil-fuel generation in the Baltics fell by about 58%. In Latvia, domestic production, including hydropower, supplied 73% of consumption (56% last year), so net imports dropped from 44% to 27%. Prices were still influenced by higher prices in Sweden's SE4 zone, where the average was 14.1 c/kWh.
Lithuania's price was 11.4 c/kWh and Estonia's 8.2 c/kWh. Daily price swings narrowed: the average gap between the highest and lowest hourly price in a day was 13.2 c/kWh, against 23.4 c/kWh last year, helped by growing battery storage capacity. Even so, Latvia's weekly average price ranged from 4.7 to 16.7 c/kWh.
What may come next
The link between wind output and prices was clear: on days when Baltic wind generation exceeded 30 GWh, Latvia's price averaged 5.2 c/kWh, while on days below 15 GWh it averaged 16.1 c/kWh. The TTF natural gas benchmark price averaged 86.6 EUR/MWh in October, 15% above September and about 2.7 times last year's level; at month-end it approached 100 EUR/MWh, the highest since December 2022. EU gas storage was unusually low.
Romāns Tjurins, head of portfolio management and market research at Enefit, said consumption will rise during the heating season while solar output keeps falling, meaning low-wind periods will require more imports and more expensive fossil capacity. A cold, windless spell combined with high gas prices and limited Nordic hydropower could push prices up faster across the Baltics, while a windy, mild winter would help contain them.
