Ukraine says Russia can't replace its losses, plans mass draft after elections — and again in 2027
Ukraine claims Russia is preparing a new wave of mass mobilization after upcoming elections, with another planned for 2027, as battlefield losses increasingly outpace contract recruitment.
Ukrainian officials say Russia is preparing a new wave of mass conscription to follow its upcoming elections, with a further mobilization drive planned for 2027. According to Kyiv, the move has become necessary because Russian battlefield losses are increasingly outstripping the number of soldiers Moscow manages to recruit through contract-service offers.
A shortfall of contract recruits
Until now, Moscow has sought to avoid a new open mobilization, relying instead on financial incentive schemes to attract volunteers into contract military service. But according to Ukraine, this approach can no longer keep pace with losses sustained in prolonged fighting. If the rate of losses continues to exceed the number of new recruits, it could gradually erode Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations at their current scale.
Ukrainian officials note that this is reportedly why the Kremlin has chosen to delay a new draft campaign until after the elections, possibly to avoid domestic political tension ahead of the vote. A second mobilization wave is planned for 2027, suggesting Russian leadership is preparing for a protracted conflict and the need to continually replenish its armed forces in the years ahead.
Ukraine presents this information as evidence that Russia's capacity to sustain the current intensity of the war is limited and directly dependent on its ability to supply new troops. There has been no official Russian response to these claims so far.
