Tropical Storm Isaias Poised to Become First Atlantic Hurricane of 2026
Tropical Storm Isaias is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and could become a hurricane before reaching the coast between Mississippi and Florida by the weekend. The Atlantic season has otherwise been unusually quiet because of a powerful El Niño.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually calm so far, but that is expected to change this week. Forecasts indicate that Tropical Storm Isaias will turn into the season's first hurricane and come ashore somewhere between Mississippi and Florida by the weekend.
The US National Hurricane Center's latest update puts the storm's winds in the Gulf of Mexico at about 65 mph, just under hurricane strength. It is expected to cross a patch of unusually warm water that should give it extra fuel. As it moves northeast, it could peak as a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to weaken it shortly before landfall.
Coastal warnings
Hurricane watches have been issued for the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastline and for parts of the Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm watches extend into Louisiana. The region could see up to 7 inches of rain, with some Panhandle locations receiving as much as 10 inches, and storm surge of up to 7 feet. Tornadoes are also possible.
Possible record and the El Niño effect
Isaias could also set, or at least tie, the record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane. The current record dates to 1905, when the season's first hurricane formed on October 8. One more update is scheduled for Wednesday, so the storm may narrowly miss tying that mark.
The season was forecast to be below average, but it has been even quieter than predicted. The reason is an exceptionally strong El Niño, nicknamed "super" and "Godzilla," though meteorologists stress these are not official designations. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific hit record highs through the summer and early autumn. That has altered winds over the Atlantic, which tear storms apart. Saharan dust has also dried out the air in one of the main hurricane development areas.
By the numbers
From 1991 to 2020, the basin averaged 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) per year. This year there have been eight tropical storms and one hurricane about to form. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) stands at 10.8 units, against a typical figure of nearly 102 for this time of year.
Another surprise storm in the coming weeks cannot be ruled out. But with El Niño still intensifying and the season's peak well behind us, the chances of a sudden surge in activity are minimal.
