Tiido: Finland's Example Shows How Russian Provocations Can Erode Its Influence
ERR commentator Harri Tiido, drawing on an analysis by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, describes Russia's "embedded influence" in Finland. He urges the West to drop the term "hybrid war", prosecute sabotage as terrorism and act more firmly against Russia's shadow fleet.
Estonian foreign policy commentator Harri Tiido has devoted his latest commentary to Russian influence activity in Finland. He draws on an analysis by Sinikukka Saari of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) and adds his own conclusions.
What is "embedded influence"
Tiido explains that Russia has for years shaped the strategic environment by embedding manipulative influence in seemingly lawful forms of cooperation. In his view, what the West calls hybrid activity is what Russia calls active measures, known since Soviet times: disinformation, demonstrations organized by front organizations and even murders.
Until 2022, Finland's foreign policy aimed at pragmatic, cooperative and economically beneficial relations. Moscow tried to sway political decisions by stressing a relationship based on trust and by encouraging skepticism toward EU and NATO countries, particularly the Baltic states. From time to time it carried out carefully calibrated operations, such as airspace violations or directing migrants to the border. Tiido notes that some Finnish decision-makers feared that rejecting Russian investment would hand opportunities to competitors.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, cooperation broke off sharply and Russia lost its main levers of influence. It turned to cyberattacks, GPS jamming, engineered migration waves and disinformation. Finland's strengths are its crisis-preparedness culture and comprehensive security approach, though the analysis finds that authorities were slow to grasp the risks of Russian investments and property purchases near critical infrastructure and military bases. Journalists, researchers and activists drew attention to this.
Tiido's recommendations
He argues that talk of hybrid war should stop, pointing to an interview by Estonian foreign intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin in The Telegraph, in which he called Russia's actions state-supported terrorism. Tiido suggests charging perpetrators of sabotage with terrorism rather than hooliganism or vandalism, and communicating this widely to young people.
He also calls for firmer action against the shadow fleet: special maritime zones with environmental restrictions, detention of captains and suspicious crew members, confiscation of ships or cargo, and halting vessels bound for Russian ports before the Danish Straits.
