Slaidiņš: Russia sharply increases attack numbers, but territorial gains remain small
Latvian military analyst Jānis Slaidiņš says Russian forces in Ukraine have dramatically increased their number of attacks, yet this has not translated into comparable territorial gains, suggesting the Kremlin is rushing to meet its objectives.
In a TV24 broadcast, National Armed Forces major and Land Forces staff officer Jānis Slaidiņš analyzed the situation on the front line, noting that Russia continues its practice of claiming settlements "on credit" — announcing captures even though the actual situation on the ground remains unclear and the location often sits in a so-called gray zone.
As an example, Slaidiņš cited a case in Ukraine's Sumy region, where Russian forces sought to demonstrate presence by planting a flag. In modern warfare, this is often done not by soldiers but by drones, which deliver and place the flag before it is filmed as apparent proof of control.
Attacks rising at record pace
According to Slaidiņš, the number of combat clashes has risen by about 40% compared to April this year, with more than 8,000 attacks recorded per month — a level not previously seen on the front. In July, Russian units were sent into attacks roughly 8,000 times, up 11% from June and 14% from May. Compared to winter and spring, the number of attacks has grown by as much as 60%, with Russian forces now carrying out an average of about 258 attacks per day.
Territorial gains disproportionately small
Despite this intensity, Russia's advance on the front continues to stagnate — last month its controlled territory grew by only about 88 square kilometers, an area comparable to the city of Jūrmala. Slaidiņš explained that the Kremlin's strategic goal remains full control of the Donetsk region, with the most favorable scenario for capturing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk being by the end of 2027. In his assessment, the sharp rise in attacks indicates Russia is rushing to push its units forward, aiming to reach the Kremlin's goals as quickly as possible or at least secure a better position for future offensive operations.
