Sergei Medvedev: The Russian Empire Is Dying Out Like the Dinosaurs

Ukrainian drone strikes in May 2026 have fundamentally altered the course of the war and Russia's political landscape, writes historian and writer Sergei Medvedev.

On June 3, as the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum opened, dozens of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles traveled over a thousand kilometers from the Ukrainian border with little difficulty and struck infrastructure targets in the Kronstadt, Kirovsky, and Krasnoselsky districts. In Kronstadt, the corvette Boiky, a guided-missile warship that had recently escorted tankers from Russia's shadow fleet through the English Channel, was hit. The St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, the largest oil transshipment complex in northwestern Russia, was also struck.

Social media filled with videos of burning terminals, with commentators, especially men, reacting with excitement as if watching a movie. Medvedev describes this as a severe form of infantilism.

Ukrainian drones have also disrupted Russians' vacation plans. The entire Black Sea coast is experiencing oil rain, fuel spills, closed beaches in Anapa and Tuapse, and fuel shortages in Crimea. According to Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukrainian forces have begun a campaign of "logistical isolation."

New American-made drones incorporating machine vision and artificial intelligence are targeting fuel tankers and other trucks supplying the annexed peninsula, turning the R-280 highway into a road of death. Roadsides are littered with burned-out truck hulks, drivers refuse to deliver even for triple pay, and gasoline is virtually unobtainable in Crimea. Ration coupons for fuel have become worthless scraps of paper.

Medvedev emphasizes that the land corridor to Crimea has been nullified, and the peninsula has become a besieged fortress once again. He notes that in May, Ukrainian drones effectively canceled three of Putin's Russia's principal symbolic achievements: the Victory Parade, which turned into a timid "parade of defeat"; the St. Petersburg Economic Forum; and the route to annexed Crimea.

Russia's immense territory, once a guarantee of invulnerability, has become a burden in a new technological era defined by unmanned systems, autonomous weapons, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence. The country can no longer defend such a vast area, and its dispersed infrastructure is highly vulnerable to small, long-range drones.

Russia, Medvedev argues, resembles dinosaurs whose gigantic bodies no longer provided an advantage in a changing environment. The country will not survive this century in its current form. The war is merely accelerating decolonization and the loss of territorial control.