Security service: Russia may try to escalate with sabotage, but risk of full invasion remains very low

Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) told the LETA news agency that Russia may attempt to escalate the security situation in the Baltic states and across NATO through unconventional means, including sabotage, provocations and other so-called grey-zone activities. The agency said the number and scale of such incidents have grown in recent months, alongside a rise in emotionally charged messaging about threats to Latvia.

SAB stressed that the likelihood of a conventional, large-scale military invasion — a direct attack by another state's armed forces — remains very low for the Baltics and NATO in the near term, even though regional tension has increased. Possible scenarios, including violations of NATO airspace, are well known to security services, and such actions aim to divide Western societies and deter support for Ukraine.

Armed forces and election security

Lieutenant General Kaspars Pudāns, commander of Latvia's National Armed Forces, said the threat level has not changed and is reassessed daily in coordination with allied intelligence services. The comprehensive defence exercise "Namejs" is currently under way with allied units participating, operation "Vilkatis" continues in eastern Latvia, and NATO air patrols will be reinforced during the upcoming parliamentary election.

President and prime minister comment

President Edgars Rinkēvičs warned of a difficult autumn and winter ahead, citing a rise in Russian-linked sabotage and espionage cases targeting infrastructure and companies in countries supporting Ukraine, while noting no troop buildup suggesting preparation for a full-scale invasion of NATO or EU territory. He identified cyberattacks, migration pressure on the Belarusian border and drone incidents as the main risks around the election.

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs urged the public not to panic, saying Russia is not ready for another war and is incapable of a conventional attack, while NATO support remains stronger than ever. He acknowledged, however, that Russia's own "election" period is fueling more disinformation and propaganda, and called for continued vigilance.