Raivo Vare: Full collapse of fuel in Russia unlikely

At a Friday briefing, Estonia's Defense Ministry noted that in June the Russian army captured an average of one square kilometer of Ukrainian territory per day, which is 16 times less than in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, Russia launched a massive strike on Kyiv overnight Thursday, killing 30 people. Although most of the missiles and drones were intercepted, 25 ballistic missiles and 12 drones reached their targets. The Estonian Defense Ministry views these attacks as Russia's inability to resolve the situation on the front line.

Gert Kaju, head of the Defense Readiness Department, stated that compared to June last year, when Russian losses were about 32,000 soldiers and they lost about 68 soldiers per square kilometer, now there is a significant decrease in the pace of advance along with increased losses.

Independent experts disagree with the ministry's assessment, noting that attacks on civilians have been occurring since the start of the war. Security expert Rainer Saks believes that Ukraine is likely using its air defense also to protect its airfields and military bases. Russia strikes residential areas with ballistic missiles to force Ukraine to concentrate all air defense around Kyiv, opening up opportunities for strikes elsewhere.

Meanwhile, in Russia due to the fuel crisis, lower-quality Euro-3 gasoline has been allowed, and it may be necessary to use Euro-2 to reduce social tension on the domestic market. Diesel for strategically important logistics is still available. As Raivo Vare said, there will be major problems and disruptions, but a full collapse is unlikely because Russia now exports less diesel than before.

At the same time, experts are increasingly discussing future mobilization in Russia and provocations in the Baltic region.