Putin and the 'Drowning Man Syndrome' Amid Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis

In Russia, long queues formed at petrol stations after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted oil refineries and fuel infrastructure. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the attacks were 'creating problems', saying strategic reserves were being used and that restrictions on diesel exports were under consideration, while insisting the situation was 'not critical'. The disruption follows President Volodymyr Zelensky's 40-day campaign of deep strikes against Russian energy facilities, aimed at increasing pressure on the Kremlin.

At the same time, Russia unleashed one of its largest aerial assaults on Kyiv since the start of the war, firing 74 missiles and around 500 drones during an 11-hour bombardment that killed at least 30 people and struck residential buildings. A panel examines the military balance, the diplomatic calculations on both sides, and whether Russia risks entering what some analysts describe as a 'drowning man syndrome' – escalating further as its strategic options narrow.

Attention also turns to Sudan, where the humanitarian situation in El Obeid is rapidly deteriorating. Around half a million civilians are effectively trapped as the Rapid Support Forces tighten their encirclement of the city. Military analysts warn that a major ground offensive could be imminent, while the United Nations says dwindling food supplies and damage to essential infrastructure are placing civilians at grave risk. Amnesty International has warned that the siege mirrors the tactics used during the capture of El Fasher and is calling for the urgent deployment of an international protection force to prevent what it describes as another potential 'stain on the conscience of humanity'.