Ignoring AfD's win would anger voters further, political scientist warns

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has scored a historic victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, and the result amounts to an earthquake for the other parties, according to political scientist Nicolas Spohn, who studies politics in eastern Germany. In an interview with Euronews, he argued that Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition response to the outcome will be decisive for the future of the federal government.

Official results from the vote in the eastern state, home to about 2.1 million people, show the AfD winning 43.8% of the vote — more than double its result five years ago. Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) slumped to 17.2%. Spohn noted that this is the first time since World War II that a far-right party has come so close to power at the state level in Germany.

The pro-Kremlin, anti-immigration party's success has raised questions about its national implications. Thorsten Frei, the leader of the CDU in the Bundestag, downplayed the impact, saying the result in Saxony-Anhalt would have no consequences at the national level. But Spohn warned that turning a blind eye to the election warnings could give the AfD more votes.

The political scientist said many voters are frustrated with the CDU's failure to keep its promises, especially in the economy, which is performing worse than before the last federal election. While some factors, such as the wars in Ukraine and Iran, are beyond Merz's control, Germans are feeling the economic effects, Spohn added.

The frustration is particularly visible in Saxony-Anhalt, where Merz's approval rating has fallen to just over 9%. In Spohn's view, this was a more decisive factor in the election than genuine support for the AfD's policies. "It is not genuine support for the AfD's agenda, but rather for the idea of doing everything differently," he said.

Saxony-Anhalt, a former part of East Germany, has experienced the largest population decline of any German state over the past 35 years, losing a quarter of its inhabitants since reunification in 1990. Young people in rural areas are hit hardest, through teacher shortages and poor career prospects. According to Spohn, about 40% of AfD voters are not voting for the party because of its far-right policies, but despite them — eastern Germans are not more right-wing, they are simply more frustrated.

With regional elections approaching in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in just under two weeks, the AfD is leading in voter-intention polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania at roughly 35%. To reverse the trend, Spohn argued, the CDU must offer a positive vision for the future. "At the moment, we don't have this positive vision, and the AfD is the only party giving voters some kind of positive outlook, which was, 'everything is possible'," he said.