Researchers warn this year's strong El Niño could cause over 450,000 deaths worldwide
University of Chicago researchers estimate that extreme heat linked to this year's powerful El Niño could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide by February 2027. Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are expected to be hit hardest.
Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimate that extreme heat tied to this year's strong El Niño climate phenomenon could result in up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide over the six months leading up to February 2027.
Sharp rise in extreme heat days
According to the study, the number of extremely hot days during this period is projected to increase by 44%. The researchers identify Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan as among the countries likely to be hit hardest, though other nations could also face serious consequences.
Effects may extend beyond the study period
The study's authors caution that the projected toll is not limited to the six-month window analyzed — the real impact on human health and lives is likely to continue afterward and could ultimately be larger than current estimates suggest.
Oxford University climate scientist Chloe Brimicombe has provided additional context on the phenomenon, noting that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that periodically affects temperatures and weather worldwide, and that its interaction with broader climate change trends can intensify extreme heat and related health risks, particularly in the most vulnerable regions.
The findings are seen as a significant warning for the international community about the need to prepare for climate-driven health crises in poorer regions that are already vulnerable to extreme heat.
