OPEC+ Leans Toward Holding November Oil Output Steady
OPEC+ has tentatively agreed to keep oil production targets unchanged for November as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continues to disrupt exports. The group's seven core members meet Sunday to finalize the decision.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, have reached a preliminary agreement to leave November production targets unchanged, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. A final decision is expected at a meeting on Sunday involving the group's seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
War disrupting exports
Gulf-based OPEC+ producers have consistently pumped below their assigned targets in recent months, as the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran continues to disrupt regional exports. Export volumes have fluctuated between 60% and 80% of normal levels. The conflict has also pushed back a planned review of the group's output capacity — a process needed to set 2027 production quotas — since the fighting has clouded forecasts of future production potential.
Output still below pre-war levels
Throughout much of 2026, OPEC+ had been raising its output targets following years of production cuts, but the Middle East conflict meant many of those increases existed largely on paper rather than in actual barrels pumped. The seven core members produced 25 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 630,000 bpd compared to July, yet still about 5 million bpd short of February's pre-war levels, according to OPEC figures.
The alliance still maintains roughly 2 million bpd of production cuts affecting most of its members. A capacity review is required before the group can decide how to allocate future increases, and sources say any changes to output targets are unlikely to occur before 2027.
