Leaked Russian Calculations Show How to Knock Out Ukraine's Power Grid
Ukraine's defence forces have intercepted a Russian document calculating the weapons needed to destroy Ukrainian energy and utility infrastructure. Experts caution against drawing sweeping conclusions, calling it more a theoretical estimate.
Russia has drawn up a detailed plan to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure, according to RFE/RL's Ukrainian service Radio Svoboda, which cites its own sources. The document was intercepted by Ukraine's defence forces.
What the document says
The plan is titled "Analytical Note: Analysis of Ukraine's Electricity Generation and Utilities" and is dated August 2026. It defines four priority target categories: electricity generation and supply, water supply, sewerage and heating.
The first step would be to destroy hubs near Ukraine's western border through which the country imports electricity from Europe. Among the priority targets are also ten large hydroelectric plants on the Dnipro and Dniester rivers, along with three nuclear plants: South Ukraine, Rivne and Khmelnytskyi. In total, 60 strategically important sites are identified, including thermal power plants, substations, boiler houses, wastewater treatment facilities and pumping stations.
Weapons calculations
Carrying out the strikes would require up to 770 drones (Molniya, Geran and Dan-T/Banderol rocket drones), 170 FAB glide bombs fitted with UMPK kits, and 75 Kinzhal and Iskander-M missiles. For example, two Iskander missiles are assigned to disable one nuclear plant, 25 drones or three Kinzhal missiles to a hydroelectric plant, and 20 drones to a boiler house.
The main targets are Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa, with Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Lviv and other cities also listed. The authors regard five "Kyiv ring" substations as the capital's weak point. They suggest that destroying the 12 most important substations in the three main cities could cause power outages of up to 90%.
Context
Experts urge restraint, noting the paper is not a final military operations plan but rather a theoretical calculation. Russia began its campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in September, earlier than in previous years. The US-based Institute for the Study of War believes Moscow is trying to inflict as much damage as possible before Ukraine develops more effective counter-drone measures.
It was previously reported that Ukrainian intelligence had intercepted a plan for mass attacks this winter, aimed at destroying 15 GW of generating capacity and leaving the largest cities without electricity, heating and water.
