Ahead of the Nobel literature announcement: who might win in 2026

The winner of the 2026 Nobel prize in literature is about to be announced. Last year's laureate was Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai.

How the winner is chosen

The decision rests with the 18 life members of the Swedish Academy, a group that includes literary historians, lawyers, linguists and journalists. Seven of them are women. The process lasts a year: each September, hundreds of eligible individuals and organisations, such as university literature professors, former laureates and heads of writers' associations, are invited to nominate. Self-nomination is not allowed. In spring a committee of four or five academicians draws up a confidential shortlist of five, the Academy reads over the summer, and the decision comes in early October.

The criteria are not public, but changes in the membership can affect voting tendencies. Swedish observers are tipping a poet this year partly because the newest member, Anna Hallberg, elected in May 2026, has published nine verse collections.

Favourites and predictions

The bookies' joint favourites are Can Xue, a 73-year-old Chinese author known for experimental, dreamlike prose, and Anne Carson, a Canadian poet, essayist and translator. Can Xue has topped the odds lists several times, including in 2018, 2019, 2023, 2024 and 2025, without winning. Bookmakers rarely call the result correctly, roughly once a decade.

Commentators note that after a Norwegian man in 2023, a South Korean woman in 2024 and a Hungarian man in 2025, a non-European woman could be expected. Names mentioned include Alexis Wright, Jamaica Kincaid, Marlene van Niekerk and Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie. Salman Rushdie is also listed among possible contenders.

The odds are only predictions; the Academy's announcement will show whether any of them proves right.