NATO General: Russia Would Fail in Baltic Attack
NATO's top commander in Europe believes Russia will not attempt to attack the Baltic states because it knows the alliance is too strong and has asymmetric advantages.
General Alexus Grinkevich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO, stated that Russia "does not seek conflict," despite concerns from European allies about potential security gaps arising from Washington's plans to withdraw key military forces.
Speaking at a panel discussion at the Berlin Air Show ILA on Thursday, Grinkevich addressed questions about a possible Russian attack on the Baltic countries. He said his role is to ensure the credibility of NATO's deterrence and to make Moscow understand it cannot achieve military victory over the alliance. "I have been following the intelligence very closely," he said. "Russia does not seek conflict... They understand the term 'defensive alliance' and understand that we have a number of asymmetric advantages."
His comments come as the United States plans to reduce military capabilities allocated to the NATO force model—a reserve of alliance forces and equipment that can be deployed within 10, 30, and 180 days in response to a crisis. This assessment contrasts with growing concerns in the Baltic states that a reduction in U.S. military presence could weaken NATO's deterrence and alter Moscow's calculations.
Grinkevich, who also heads U.S. European Command, said his "job" is to ensure "Russia understands: if they try something in the Baltic countries, it will not work. Because they know they will not succeed, they will not risk anything like that." He added, "When people ask me: are you ready to fight tonight? Absolutely."
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed European fears of a Russian attack on NATO countries as "nonsense," calling it a "deliberate provocation to create a threat that does not exist and force their populations to spend more on defense."
A joint investigation by media outlets from Nordic and Baltic countries recently found that Russia is building new infrastructure near its borders to house tens of thousands of troops. In April, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated that, if necessary, NATO could completely destroy Russian bases in Kaliningrad.
