NATO's eastern flank fears US may not help if Russia attacks
Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, NATO's eastern members increasingly doubt U.S. commitment to collective defense, worrying that Washington might not join the fight in case of a Russian attack.
A growing sense of unease has been spreading across Eastern Europe since Donald Trump began his second term, with leaders questioning whether the United States would actually come to their aid if Russia attacked. The fears were fueled by several developments, including U.S. Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno's evasive answer when asked directly whether American troops would fight to defend the Baltic states. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also made clear that European security was no longer a U.S. priority, urging Europe to step up its own defense spending.
Hegseth's blunt remarks at NATO headquarters in February 2025 were a reality check for many Europeans. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius suggested setting a timeline for a U.S. drawdown, but the idea was widely opposed for fear of accelerating an American exit. The subsequent humiliation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by Trump and the temporary halt of intelligence-sharing with Ukraine deepened the anxiety, especially in Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk's inner circle felt "the ground shifting beneath their feet," as one source put it.
In response, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened a meeting in London that led to the formation of the "coalition of the willing." The group held regular video calls to coordinate messaging aimed at keeping Trump engaged in European security. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who had built a rapport with Trump on the golf course, acted as an informal ambassador for smaller nations.
The NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, feared by some to be a potential disaster, ended successfully largely due to Secretary General Mark Rutte's efforts to keep Trump happy. Allies committed to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a level already met by Poland and the Baltic states. Rutte's fawning, including calling Trump "daddy," was seen as distasteful but effective.
Despite the summit's success, the unpredictability of the Trump administration remains a major concern. Former Latvian Defense and Foreign Minister Artis Pabriks noted that communication channels that worked under Trump's first term are now broken: "We can't get to deliver our message, we cannot predict, we cannot talk." In September 2025, around 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace in what appeared to be a test of NATO's red lines. However, technical cooperation functioned well, with the U.S. commander in Europe coordinating Allies' response, according to Polish analyst Sławomir Dębski.
