McDonald's shares fall after Investor Day, even as new restaurants keep lifting overall sales
McDonald's stock dropped 4.8% on September 23 following the company's Investor Day, where it unveiled a major franchisee support plan, while newly opened restaurants continue to offset weak performance at existing U.S. locations.
New restaurants boost overall figures
According to analysis compiled by Trefis, McDonald's system-wide sales — covering all restaurants, including franchisee-operated ones — grew 4% in constant currency in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. However, comparable sales, which track only restaurants already open, rose just 1.3%. Management attributed the gap to a challenging consumer environment, with fast-food traffic flat to negative in several of its largest markets. Trefis estimates that the roughly 2.7-percentage-point difference between the two figures is largely explained by the contribution of new restaurant openings.
Struggles with the value menu in the U.S.
In the U.S., comparable sales grew only 0.8% in the second quarter, below the company's own expectations, and turned slightly negative in July. Management estimated that poor execution of the value menu accounted for about two-thirds of the shortfall in customer visits. Fixing this, management said, will take time, since changes require negotiations with franchisees rather than a quick switch.
Investor Day and a large support package
At its September 23 Investor Day, McDonald's announced roughly $8.5 billion in support for franchisees through 2036, with about $5 billion of that arriving by 2030 through rent relief and capital contributions. Shares fell 4.8% that same day as investors weighed the cost of the plan.
Valuation and delayed targets
Following its September 23 close, McDonald's stock traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2, below 20.7 — the low end of its valuation range over the past decade. A $10,000 investment made a year earlier, dividends included, would have been worth about $8,070 by that date. The company has also pushed back, for a second time, its goal of reaching 50,000 restaurants worldwide — now targeted for 2028 instead of 2027 — citing pressure on consumers and rising construction costs for new locations. McDonald's still expects to open about 2,600 gross new restaurants by the end of 2026. Trefis also notes that McDonald's debt equals 32% of its market value, compared with 21% for the S&P 500 on average, which it flags as an additional risk for investors.
