Brazil's Lula launches historic fourth presidential bid, facing jailed Bolsonaro's son

Brazil's leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally launched his campaign for a historic fourth term on Sunday, addressing thousands of supporters in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city where his political career began nearly 50 years ago. The 80-year-old leader recalled the chaos of his far-right predecessor Jair Bolsonaro's 2018-2022 presidency, including hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths and a surge in gun ownership after weapons laws were relaxed.

In October's election, Lula will face Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old senator son of the jailed former president, who launched his own campaign on Sunday at an event on Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana beach. Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced in 2025 to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn his 2022 election defeat.

Lula pledged to dedicate a fourth term to improving education and healthcare and developing Brazil's rare earth deposits, the world's second largest after China's. He also promised to target wealthy organised crime bosses, saying it was easy to punish criminals in poor neighbourhoods but harder to go after those living in luxury.

Polls suggest Lula holds a narrow lead over Bolsonaro heading into a potential run-off on 25 October, should no candidate win 50% of the vote in the first round on 4 October — 43% to 40% in Lula's favour. Observers have described the contest as one of the most consequential elections worldwide this year, given fears that a Bolsonaro win would bolster a wider pro-Trump rightward shift across Latin America.

Tensions have been heightened by the US government's recent designation of Brazil's two largest organised crime groups as terrorist organisations, fuelling concerns about possible American military intervention. Activists at Lula's launch expressed anger over US policy, while Flávio Bolsonaro praised Washington's move against the crime groups.