Badenoch heads into Tory conference in a far stronger position than a year ago
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch arrives at this year's party conference in a much sturdier position than 12 months ago, when the party feared a leadership challenge amid record-low polling. Pollsters and strategists say her personal ratings have improved even as the party overall remains unpopular.
A year ago, Conservative MPs were bracing for a possible attempt to oust Kemi Badenoch as leader, after the party's poll ratings sank to historic lows of 14-16%. November was widely seen as the danger month, since it marked Badenoch's first full year in the role and would have allowed internal rules to be used against her.
The mood has shifted markedly since then. The party has climbed into the low 20s in polling, occasionally edging past Reform UK for the first time in almost two years — a shift some have called a "Keminisation" of the party. Luke Tryl of the More in Common thinktank says Badenoch is currently the only thing keeping the party afloat, warning that removing her would likely guarantee electoral disaster.
Data from Opinium shows Badenoch's net approval rising from -27 in May 2025 to -3 in its most recent poll. Among people who voted Conservative in 2024, 64% approve of her compared with just 8% who disapprove. A separate YouGov poll this week found many respondents still describe her negatively, often citing unpleasantness, though three in 10 used positive terms such as strong and intelligent.
Some Tory MPs credit her improvement to a willingness to take advice, including shifting focus toward the economy and away from culture-war messaging — reflected in this year's conference slogan, "Stronger economy, stronger country". Her performance at prime minister's questions has also improved, aided by preparation help from senior figures such as David Cameron.
A turning point, according to insiders, was the defection of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to Reform UK, which removed a destabilising presence from within her own ranks. However, the rise of Labour's Andy Burnham as a more compelling communicator is seen as raising the bar for Badenoch's conference performance. Some Conservative insiders caution that her position remains fragile unless the party can sustainably overtake Reform UK, pointing to selection processes that excluded some prominent former MPs as a sign that allies are wary of internal challengers.
