Weather watcher Vilis Bukšs: first snow in Latvia could fall in early November

Latvian weather watcher Vilis Bukšs has shared his observations of nature on the social network X and ventured a guess that this year's first snow in Latvia could arrive in about three weeks, meaning early November. He bases the assumption on the behaviour of migratory birds in mid-October.

Bukšs writes that on 18 October, greylag-type geese (sējas zosis, bean geese) flew in large numbers at high altitude from the northeast. He also spotted the first flocks of swans, as well as waxwings (known in Latvian as svilpji or sarkankrūtīši). He builds his conclusion on lines by the poet Imants Ziedonis: “When the swans fly away, it will snow on the third day.” Twisting those words around, Bukšs concludes that snow will come in three weeks.

Last year

Last year the first snow in Latvia was recorded as early as 12 October, when wet snow began to fall in Šķilbēni parish in Balvi municipality.

What the forecasts show

According to the latest data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the average air temperature in Latvia this week and next will be at least three degrees above the norm.

In the coming days cloud cover will vary, mostly without precipitation. On the night to Tuesday, temperatures will still dip one or two degrees below zero in places, but the following nights will be warmer. On Wednesday and Thursday the air temperature will rise to +11..+16 degrees, after which daytime highs will be slightly lower.

In the second half of this week and next week skies will be cloudier more often, with occasional rain. The wind will most often blow moderately from the south and southeast.

ECMWF data indicate that November in Latvia is also expected to be warmer than usual, while precipitation in the coming weeks will be close to normal.