Separatist party set to win Quebec election, posing new test for Canada's unity

Canadian media are projecting that the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ) will form a minority government after Monday's provincial election in Quebec, with party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon set to become the province's next premier. It would mark the PQ's first return to power since 2014.

The outcome could create a fresh challenge for federal Prime Minister Mark Carney, raising the prospect of clashes with Quebec over immigration policy and the monarchy's role. The PQ has pledged to hold a referendum on Quebec independence, echoing a separate vote planned in Alberta later this month. Quebec previously held sovereignty referendums in 1980 and 1995, though current polling suggests only around 30% of Quebecers currently support such a move. Plamondon has said any new referendum would wait until after Donald Trump leaves the US presidency, pointing to a likely timeline of 2029 or 2030.

Friction with Ottawa expected

During the campaign, Plamondon vowed to push back against any federally mandated increases to immigration levels. He has also pledged to end the monarchy's role in Quebec, saying funds currently allocated to royal institutions should instead go toward social priorities such as tackling homelessness. He specifically floated defunding the lieutenant-governor's office, which represents King Charles III in the province. Such a move would likely trigger legal disputes, since the monarchy is embedded in Canada's constitutional framework and the lieutenant-governor's role includes granting royal assent to provincial legislation. Plamondon has said he is prepared for a legal fight with the federal government over the issue.

The PQ's apparent win follows years of declining support for the outgoing Coalition Avenir Québec government, whose longtime leader François Legault lost significant backing. An attempt to revive the party under new leader Christine Fréchette, who became premier, fell short, with Fréchette losing her own seat in Trois-Rivières. The Quebec Liberal Party took second place in seats, while the Quebec Conservative Party also made gains.

Prime Minister Carney, whose popularity in Quebec had recently slipped amid US tariffs on Canadian goods, congratulated Plamondon on the win and said he looked forward to working together, citing shared goals of supporting Quebec businesses and workers, creating jobs, and addressing homelessness and housing shortages.