Russia reports growth Putin demanded, but economists doubt it will hold

Russia's state statisticians have published figures showing the economic growth that Putin had called for, but economists have greeted the data with caution, doubting that the momentum will last.

According to the latest report, the rebound was driven largely by military spending and one-off factors. Such temporary boosts, economists argue, do not provide a reliable foundation for sustained expansion. They point out that the reported uptick barely moved what had been a flat trend during the first half of the year.

The timing of the release is also notable: it came shortly after Putin instructed his officials to change the economy's course and deliver growth. The statistical agency's numbers appear to align with that demand, yet independent observers remain skeptical.

The concern among economists is that without fundamental structural improvements, the growth figure may prove short-lived. War-related expenditures can give a temporary lift to industrial output and state orders, but they also strain public finances and crowd out other sectors. One-off factors, by their nature, do not repeat, making it hard to expect similar results in the coming quarters.

In essence, while the headline numbers may satisfy a political requirement, the underlying picture remains one of stagnation. The first half showed little movement, and the latest rebound has done little to change that assessment. Whether the economy can truly turn around will depend on more durable drivers, which the current data have not yet demonstrated.