Russian Wheat Exports Could Hit Decade Low in August
Escalating Black Sea vessel attacks have created severe port bottlenecks, threatening to push Russia's August wheat exports to their lowest level in about a decade. The resulting glut is pushing down domestic grain prices.
Russia's grain exports are on track to fall to their lowest August level in roughly a decade, as escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea create severe congestion at southern ports, industry analysts warned Tuesday.
Agricultural consultancy SovEcon projects Russia will export between 3 million and 3.4 million metric tons of wheat this month, well below the five-year August average of 5 million tons and potentially the lowest August figure since the 2016-17 season. Separately, consultancy ProZerno forecasts total grain exports will drop to around 2.5 million tons, as congestion mounts across both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The five-year August average for overall grain exports stands at 5.7 million tons.
Mutual attacks disrupt shipping
Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, and Ukraine, another major agricultural exporter, have in recent weeks been striking each other's export infrastructure and commercial ships in the Black Sea region, pushing global wheat prices higher.
The shipping bottleneck has left Russia's domestic market oversupplied, with local prices falling by as much as 450 rubles (about $5.46) per ton over the past week as farmers struggle to move their harvests abroad.
Even as foreign buyers pull back amid soaring freight costs, Russia's Agriculture Ministry announced it will raise the wheat export tax for the period from Aug. 12 to Aug. 18. The ministry said the country's grain harvest so far exceeds 72 million tons, including more than 60 million tons of wheat.
Meanwhile, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies cut its forecast for Russia's total 2026 grain harvest from 140 million to 138.5 million tons, and lowered its estimate of export capacity for the 2026-27 season from 61.5 million to 60 million tons. Russia's main grain exporters union warned earlier this month that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian vessels and ports could halt Black Sea grain exports altogether in the near term, driving up prices and worsening hunger risks in Africa and the Middle East.
