ISW expert: Kremlin pays for public loyalty, but system has a price
In an interview, ISW Russia analyst Katerina Stepanenko says the Kremlin invests heavily to secure public loyalty, but this approach has its costs and vulnerabilities.
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Katerina Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), revealed during the Riga StratCom Dialogue 2026 conference that Russian society is under significant tension, which the Kremlin tries to suppress by financing loyalty.
According to her, although many in the West expected in 2022 that the war against Ukraine would quickly turn Russian society against the ruling elite, reality has proven much more complex. Moscow deliberately invests resources to prevent different social groups from uniting and to block the formation of any protest movements.
The expert notes that independent polls in Russia are limited and often unreliable, as the state controls most sociological research. However, available information indicates growing dissatisfaction, especially among ultranationalist circles, who are beginning to question the true cost of the war.
Stepanenko emphasizes that the current regime's stability rests on its ability to buy public silence, but this system has a price. In the future, economic difficulties, war fatigue, and internal elite contradictions could increase pressure on Putin's regime, potentially leading to heightened discontent.
