ISW Expert: Russia First Fights War in Our Minds

At the "Riga StratCom Dialogue 2026" conference organized by NATO's Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, a researcher from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) addressed Western misunderstandings regarding Russian cognitive warfare and its impact on support for Ukraine.

According to the expert, one of the most potent elements of Russia's cognitive war, especially in 2025, has been the narrative that Russia will inevitably win the war. Although Russia's gains on the battlefield have been relatively modest, they have been significantly exaggerated in both media and diplomatic channels. The aim is to create the impression that Ukraine's defeat is only a matter of time and that Ukraine should agree to concessions prematurely.

Furthermore, the expert highlighted the need to pay special attention to Russia's attempts to justify the possible involvement of Baltic states in the war. This indicates that Russia continues to cultivate narratives that could serve as a pretext for aggression against the region.

The conference, led by the NATO StratCom Centre, aims to enhance understanding of strategic communication and hybrid threats.