Iran Grows Skeptical About Reaching War-Ending Deal with US Before Midterms

Iranian officials have begun expressing pessimism about the possibility of striking a deal with the United States before this fall's US midterm elections, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the matter.

According to those sources, Iran and the US made only limited progress during talks held in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last week. Tehran reportedly believes there is a high probability the conflict will escalate after the November 3 vote. Iranian officials have repeatedly said they are open to diplomatic talks but do not trust that the administration of President Donald Trump would honor the terms of any agreement. The White House reportedly harbors similar distrust of Tehran.

On Monday, responding to reporters' questions about the Iran talks, Trump said US representatives are maintaining dialogue with intermediaries but declined to disclose details, saying only that the matter would be resolved one way or another, and fairly soon.

Nuclear Program Remains the Sticking Point

One US official said no deal with Iran would be finalized until questions surrounding the country's nuclear program are resolved. The official noted Trump is willing to ease sanctions and unfreeze Iranian funds in exchange for concrete progress on the nuclear front.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who met last week with Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, has stayed in the US for further discussions to be mediated by representatives of both sides. Lead mediators are reportedly seeking an outcome different from the memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the US in mid-June, which led to a ceasefire and increased shipping through the Strait of Hormuz but lapsed after roughly two weeks before substantial progress toward a lasting peace deal could be made. Pakistan and Qatar have been the most active mediators in the on-and-off talks.

Two sources said the US government has told mediators it now wants Iran to make firm commitments on opening the strait and to make concessions regarding its nuclear program. Iran's state news agency IRNA has reported that no new round of talks in New York is currently planned.