Estonian Intelligence: Russia Has Not Achieved Any Strategic Objectives in Ukraine

According to the weekly overview of the situation in Ukraine by the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center, Russia has not achieved any of its strategic objectives despite significant efforts and losses over five years of war.

Last week saw a slight decline in combat activity, with an average of 250 engagements per day along the front line. However, Russia managed to capture 15 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that Russian forces control 100% of Luhansk Oblast, 80% of Donetsk Oblast, and 80% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russia continues to refuse negotiations with Ukraine except on its own terms. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Russia to enter talks in a public letter, but Putin responded that a meeting currently serves no purpose. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that the war in Ukraine is the result of a Western strategy aimed at containing, isolating, and weakening Russia. He also claimed that Russia agreed to compromises reached in Anchorage, but the US did not put sufficient pressure on Ukraine to accept them.

The most intense fighting occurred in the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole directions, followed by Lyman, Kostiantynivka, and Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, making some advances in the Borova direction and western Zaporizhzhia.

Russia lost an average of 1,400 personnel per day. Russian long-range strikes targeted energy, industrial, agricultural, transport, and civilian infrastructure in at least eight Ukrainian oblasts. During the week, nearly 1,500 drones and five missiles were launched at Ukraine, compared to about 2,000 drones and 82 missiles the previous week. DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy producer, reported that Russia has attacked its thermal power plants 230 times since the start of the full-scale war.

Ukrainian medium-range strikes reduced military traffic on the Rostov-on-Don–Simferopol highway by 71% over the past two weeks. The commander of the Russian Armed Forces' East Grouping banned military cargo traffic on this route and on the Kerch–Sevastopol highway. Occupation authorities in Luhansk Oblast imposed temporary restrictions on civilian traffic along the Belgorod–Mariupol and Rostov-on-Don–Simferopol highways and suspended suburban rail service on four sections.

Ukraine attacked the Chonhar Bridge twice in an effort to disrupt logistical support for Russian forces in Crimea and the southern front. Traffic on this route into Crimea was halted, and drivers were advised to use the Armyansk and Perekop routes, adding 120–150 kilometers to the journey. Ukrainian forces also struck the road bridge between Henichesk and the Arabat Spit, creating additional logistical difficulties.

In Crimea, restrictions on fuel sales to private individuals are in effect, and public transportation has decreased. Hotel bookings in Crimea fell by 31% compared to the same period last year as of late May and early June.

Last week, Ukrainian long-range precision strikes hit an oil refinery in Samara Oblast, as well as fuel infrastructure facilities in Leningrad, Vladimir, Volgograd, and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai. Drone attacks struck a gunpowder factory in Ryazan Oblast, a plant producing drone and missile components in the Chuvash Republic, a naval base in Kronstadt, a naval arsenal in Bolshaya Izhora, and military facilities in Belgorod Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and Crimea.

Russia's Ministry of Energy was forced to acknowledge that Ukrainian attacks on oil industry enterprises have caused fuel supply disruptions in several southern regions. To address the problems, Russia established a coordinating task force for the sector that includes the country's largest fuel industry companies.